ESCAP warns Middle East conflict could slow Philippines’ SDG gains

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

THE ESCALATING CONFLICT in the Middle East could further hinder the Philippines’ and the broader Asia-Pacific region’s progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in a report.

Even before the latest conflict, the region was already off track in meeting the global targets, ESCAP said.

At the current pace, Asia and the Pacific are projected to miss 103 of the 117 measurable SDG targets, it added.

ESCAP Director of Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Hamza Ali Malik said the war in the Middle East is the latest shock facing the region as it is still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and fallout from the war in Ukraine.

“Irrespective of these shocks, the region, and Philippines is no exception, is also grappling with complex socioeconomic implications of climate change, demographic shifts and rapid technological advancements,” he told BusinessWorld.

“Taken together, these have led to a slowdown in productivity growth and convergence of incomes of developing Asia-Pacific countries, including the Philippines, with advanced economies,” he added.

The Philippines reflects the region’s mixed progress toward the SDGs. ESCAP’s SDG Gateway showed improving trends for 24.8% of the country’s SDG indicators since 2015, while 16.2% showed worsening trends.

Mr. Malik said the Middle East conflict is exacerbating the challenges already faced by the region, making the pursuit of SDGs even harder.

“The conflict has disrupted connectivity in the region, adversely affected regional value chains, contributed to a fresh wave of rising prices, and substantially increased economic uncertainty,” he said.

For the Philippines, the regional headwinds are already weighing on economic activity. In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by a weaker-than-expected 2.8%, a new post-pandemic low.

“The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the Philippines has also declined for March and April 2026, indicating slower economic activity,” said Mr. Malik. “This means less job creation, difficulty in reducing poverty, and lower revenues to boost fiscal support for SDGs.”

Mr. Malik also said the country’s limited fiscal space and debt vulnerabilities also constrain the government’s ability to support people and businesses amid the conflict and pursue SDGs.

The Philippines’ fiscal position remains constrained as the National Government’s (NG) budget deficit widened by 36.73% to P198.5 billion in May from a year earlier.

NG’s outstanding debt dipped by 0.09% to P18.47 trillion in April from the P18.49-trillion end-March level. In the first quarter, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached 65.2%, the highest level since 2005.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee has already raised its fiscal deficit projection to P1.66 trillion or -5.4% of GDP this year from P1.61 trillion or -5.3% previously, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict and domestic challenges.

Amid growing geopolitical and economic headwinds, ESCAP said the Philippines, as this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chair, can play a key role in advancing the SDGs through stronger regional cooperation.

Ruhimat Soerakoesoemah, head of UN ESCAP’s subregional office for Southeast Asia, said the Philippines could help strengthen regional synergies by convening joint platforms among sectoral bodies, aligning crisis response with long-term SDG priorities, advancing integrated actions and strengthening financial resilience to support supply chains and vulnerable groups.

“By leveraging ASEAN mechanisms and partnerships to support these cross-sectoral initiatives, the Philippines can drive a more coordinated, resilient, and inclusive regional approach to SDG implementation,” he said.

‘TRIPLE PLANETARY CRISIS’
In its Asia-Pacific Synergies Report released on Monday, ESCAP said the region would require 32 additional years to achieve the full set of SDGs at the current pace of progress.

Although the region has posted significant gains in living standards, poverty reduction and access to education, ESCAP said it continues to face the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and escalating pollution, which threatens health, economic performance and social stability.

“Facing these compounded crises, simply stacking siloed policy responses tends to normalize a situation in which actions are nominally being taken, yet tangible progress remains elusive,” the report said.

These crises can no longer be addressed through responses confined to single policy domains, it said.

“What is needed now is to mainstream synergies not as a one-off ad hoc coordinated response or isolated success stories, but as the standard approach to policy design and delivery,” it said.

“This virtuous cycle, once established, can amplify outcomes even under resource constraints, strengthen social acceptance and improve implementation, and accelerate the transformations needed to make progress on the SDGs,” it added.