Uptrend in food inflation seen to persist until 2027

By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, Reporter

THE UPTREND in food inflation is expected to persist through 2027 amid mounting cost pressures, weather disruptions, and external risks due to the ongoing Middle East war, analysts said.

“We are seeing this to continue until next year or when the Middle East crisis has been resolved,” Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday that headline inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April from 4.1% in March, driven largely by faster increases in food prices.

Food inflation quickened to 6.1% in April from 2.7% a month earlier and 0.7% a year ago.

The PSA said the higher food inflation was driven by a faster annual increase in rice prices, which surged to 13.7% in April from 3.5% in March.

Other food groups that posted higher inflation included corn (21% in April from 12.3% in March); fish and other seafoods (9.4% from 6.6%); fruits and nuts (6% from 4.7%); and vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses (10.4% from 7%).

Analysts attributed the continued rise in food prices to higher fuel and fertilizer costs, as well as supply-side pressures.

Mr. Fausto said rising fuel prices have raised logistics costs across the food supply chain.

“The increase in fuel prices resulted in an increase in the cost of deliveries. As for food processors, logistics expenses together with availability and an increase in prices of raw materials contribute to the rise in inflation,” he said.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar told BusinessWorld that thin rice buffer stocks and weaker farm output also worsened food inflation.

“The buffer stock in rice is so thin, which is now impacting the market. There was also lower production during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year,” he said via Viber.

Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said the latest inflation print was expected as cost pressures continue to build.

“The results are expected, particularly on food inflation due to rising fertilizer and fuel costs, which are actually at their initial stage,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Mr. Adriano said inflationary pressures could intensify in the coming months, compounded by weather-related risks.

“We expect the full brunt of the adverse impacts of the Middle East war and the incoming El Niño in the second half of this year,” he said.

Mr. Dar said that continued fighting in the Middle East could further raise food inflation by 2.5 percentage points in the second quarter.

“If the war continues, then you can expect the food inflation to rise further by about 2.5 percentage points… by the end of the second quarter or even earlier,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture said it is rolling out measures to ease supply bottlenecks and curb rising food prices.

In a statement on Tuesday, the agency said measures include the reestablishment of dedicated food lanes, the removal of toll fees for trucks transporting agricultural goods, and the reduction of port charges to accelerate deliveries and lower logistics costs.

“We have moved to provide financial aid to agri-truckers to help keep food prices affordable, and mobilized other offices to bring food from production hubs to markets,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in the statement.

The department said it is also accelerating the rollout of its subsidized rice program, which offers rice at P20 per kilo to vulnerable sectors.

Mr. Laurel added that the government is prepared to impose a P50-per-kilo price cap on imported rice should price pressures persist.